It’s believed that China’s lending to other nations, which is sometimes veiled in secrecy, exceeds the sums that are formally tracked, leading to a large amount of “hidden debt.” Experts worry that this mounting debt issue could lead to a worse-than-expected downturn, among other issues.

Professor Carmen Reinhart of Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government claims that the lack of transparency would also impact investors considering bonds issued by those nations or institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which are aiding those nations in paying off their debts.

Speaking at the Nomura Investment Forum in Singapore towards the end of last month, she stated, “There are a lot of hidden debts as a result of China’s rise as a global creditor.” That is, nations that had taken out loans from China but failed to disclose these transactions to the World Bank or IMF.

“There is a predisposition to believe that these nations have less debt than they actually do,” the speaker said in her conclusion.

She claimed that this would make it more difficult for the World Bank and IMF to carry out their work on debt sustainability research. As part of this endeavor, the debt loads of various nations are analyzed, and suggestions for borrowing policies that reduce the likelihood of a financial crisis are made.

According to Reinhart, “from the perspective of surveillance, this means that the IMF is doing that sustainability exercise blindfolded unless they know how much Pakistan owes China,” for example, when it comes to debt sustainability for Pakistan.

If investors are unaware of the true amount already owed to China, their limited knowledge about bonds issued by those nations prevents them from making informed selections, she continued. They might undervalue the risk of making bond loans to those nations as a result.

Reinhart informed the conference that these countries had taken out several loans from Chinese lenders since 2011, many of which required restructuring or renegotiation. According to Reinhart, these countries include Bangladesh, Venezuela, Ecuador, Sri Lanka, and Cuba.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund monitor official debt numbers, but Reinhart calculated that these figures only account for roughly half of Chinese loans to foreign nations.

Furthermore, according to Reinhart, China is “not interested” in joining the fictitious “Paris Club,” which likewise tracks government lending, and is not a member of it. A coalition of creditor nations called the Paris Club seeks to resolve other governments’ financial issues.

Reports state that these loans to other nations have been made in secret, with China frequently requiring public sector assets as security.